How To Hold People Accountable for Portfolio Decision-making When Things are Uncertain?
Last updated: December 25, 2025 Read in fullscreen view
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Most organizations don’t lack innovation ideas - they lack a clear way to place them where they belong. Why do some projects keep getting funded despite delivering little value? Why are potentially game-changing ideas often downsized in the name of “safety”?
In this article, we explore the Bread & Butter – Oysters – Pearls – White Elephants matrix as a practical lens for managing innovation portfolios. You’ll see the critical difference between projects that sustain today and those that shape tomorrow - and the common management traps that quietly kill breakthrough innovation.
As we go deeper, the article uses clear screenshots of the risk-versus-reward matrix to visualize each project type, decision logic, and accountability model - all aligned with the mindset of “keep it simple, but significant” to help you streamline your business, not complicate it.
The Bread & Butter – Oysters – Pearls – White Elephants Matrix
In innovation management, the greatest challenge is not a lack of ideas, but how resources and accountability are allocated when the future of a project is inherently uncertain.
Not all projects carry the same level of risk, value, or strategic importance-therefore, they should not be managed or evaluated using a single, uniform approach.
The Bread and Butter – Oysters – Pearls – White Elephants matrix was created to address this problem.
Its purpose is to classify R&D and New Product Development initiatives based on probability of success and value if successful, enabling organizations to apply the right management logic to the right type of project.
1. Why Innovation Projects Must Be Classified
Research and development projects operate in conditions of:
- Technological uncertainty
- Market uncertainty
- Cost and time uncertainty
When all projects are evaluated using traditional criteria such as:
- On-time delivery
- Staying within budget
- Meeting the original plan
…the result is often:
- High-risk projects being downsized to appear “safe”
- Managers avoiding breakthrough initiatives
- Organizations optimizing the present while sacrificing the future
This four-quadrant matrix helps organizations recognize the fundamental differences between project types, instead of forcing all innovation efforts into the same evaluation framework.
2. Bread and Butter: Sustaining the Present
Characteristics
- High probability of success
- Low to moderate value if successful
- Typically includes product improvements, cost reductions, and process optimization
Role
- Supports the company’s short-term health
- Ensures operational stability and predictable returns
Appropriate Management Approach
- Delivered on time
- Within budget
- Meets clearly defined objectives
➡️ These projects are well suited to traditional management and KPI-based accountability.
3. Oysters: Investing in the Future
Characteristics
- Low probability of success
- Very high value if successful
- Often involves new technologies, new business models, or disruptive offerings
Role
- Forms the foundation of long-term competitive advantage
- Creates future growth opportunities
Common Management Pitfall
When managed like Bread and Butter projects, organizations tend to:
- Reduce project scope to improve certainty
- Turn Oysters into “safe but insignificant” initiatives
- Discourage managers from taking on high-risk projects altogether
More Effective Accountability
- Fail early and fail cheaply: discover failure as soon and as inexpensively as possible
- Actively adjust scope versus probability of success
- Continuously align decisions with long-term strategic objectives, not just short-term KPIs
➡️ Accountability here is not about guaranteeing success, but about making sound decisions under uncertainty.
4. Pearls: When Risk Has Been De-Risked
Characteristics
- High probability of success
- High value if successful
- Often Oysters that have passed their most critical uncertainty thresholds
Role
- Bridges breakthrough innovation and commercialization
- Drives sustainable growth
Management Approach
- Can follow Bread and Butter-style discipline
-
But must avoid:
- Unrealistic expectations
- Excessive pressure that distorts the project’s value
➡️ Pearls require execution discipline, but also room to fully realize their potential.
5. White Elephants: Drains on Resources
Characteristics
- Low probability of success
- Low value even if successful
-
Often persist due to:
- Historical decisions
- Internal politics
- Long-standing but flawed assumptions
Problem
- Consume scarce resources
- Contribute little to either short-term performance or long-term strategy
Rational Management Response
- Reassess the true value of the project
- Be willing to terminate early
- Or restructure to meaningfully increase potential value
➡️ Good management is not just about execution-it is also about knowing when to stop.
6. The Human Dimension: Managing Failure
One of the biggest barriers to innovation is not technical complexity, but organizational psychology.
If:
- Failure is always equated with incompetence
- Participation in risky projects is never recognized
…then no one will volunteer for Oysters-the very projects that shape the company’s future.
A mature organization must:
- Distinguish between poor decision-making and failure caused by uncertainty
- Recognize and reward sound judgment, even when outcomes are negative
7. Final Thoughts
The Bread and Butter – Oysters – Pearls – White Elephants matrix is not a cosmetic classification tool for reports.
It is a decision-making framework for accountability in uncertain environments.
but because organizations apply the wrong management logic to the wrong type of project.
Understanding this matrix enables organizations to:
- Protect the present
- Cultivate the future
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