What is the difference between assumption and predictions in project management
Last updated: November 03, 2023 Read in fullscreen view
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What is assumption and prediction?
An assumption is born from previous experience on a similar project or from knowledge provided by a subject matter expert. An assumption fills in missing information and allows for the project scope to remain intact as it is written and prevent scope creep. A prediction is a statement on an event that may occur and can be used to develop assumptions.
A prediction is simply a forecast that something will happen in the future. It could be factual and based on some kind of objective data or it could be based on an assumption.
Predictions are based on some data, like evidence. Assumptions are made more like a guess. They are often based on less or no data.
Example:
This is an assumption (and can be shared in the Statement of Work to protect the Scope of Work):
Assumption: The "client" shall provide access to the " vendor" for the "client's" (network/database etc etc,) on or before (given time frame or date). If this date is not met the "vendor" will present a change request to the original timeline.
This is a prediction and was used to develop the assumption. This prediction is something you would not share with the client in most cases, however depending on the relationship you have you may sometimes share predictions.
The client has a history of delaying access to their network/database etc and we feel that they will do this again on this project so we need to create an assumption.
What is project assumption and project prediction?
A project assumption is something that is within the control of the business/project, and the project assumes will remain true for the duration of the project. The business controls how many staff will be assigned to the project. The project assumes that the project will receive the appropriate staff needed to complete the project.
Predictions are the “known unknowns”. In some cases, they may also be logged as risks. Predictions are things that may happen if other things go according to plan, or not according to plan.
Examples of Project Assumptions
- We assume that PMI standard project methodology will be used in the completion of this project.
- We assume that the project sponsor will support and fund the project, acting as project champion to all department stakeholders.
- We assume that appropriate staff will be assigned to the project.
Examples of Project Predictions
- If data conversion is successful after 3 rounds, we may be able to release the accounting module ahead of schedule and independent of the tracking module.
- When we get to the testing phase, the project will need to hire temporary staff to fill in for our functional staff for three weeks.
- Because the project will extend into the next fiscal year, it may be necessary to make a status presentation to the board during budget discussions.
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