The Cone of Uncertainty in Scrum & Requirement Definition
Last updated: December 22, 2023 Read in fullscreen view
Recommended for you
- 01 Aug 2024
The Standish Group report 83.9% of IT projects partially or completely fail 687/2487 - 13 Apr 2024 Lessons on Teamwork and Leadership from Chinese story book "Journey to the West" 160/1228
- 15 Feb 2024 What is a Cut-Over in Software Development? 153/1466
- 02 Nov 2021 What is Terms of Reference (ToR)? 125/1693
- 09 Jan 2022 How to Bridge the Gap Between Business and IT? 120/322
- 19 Oct 2021 Software development life cycles 118/796
- 30 Oct 2022 How Much Does MVP Development Cost in 2023? 115/367
- 13 Oct 2021 Outsourcing Software Development: MVP, Proof of Concept (POC) and Prototyping. Which is better? 111/585
- 18 Oct 2020 How to use the "Knowns" and "Unknowns" technique to manage assumptions 111/1203
- 02 Nov 2023 Differences between software walkthrough, review, and inspection 109/2231
- 06 Nov 2023 How do you streamline requirement analysis and modeling? 108/343
- 04 Oct 2021 Product Validation: The Key to Developing the Best Product Possible 108/416
- 01 Sep 2022 Facts Chart: Why Do Software Projects Fail? 107/696
- 13 Dec 2020 Move fast, fail fast, fail-safe 104/428
- 11 Jan 2024 What are the Benefits and Limitations of Augmented Intelligence? 98/578
- 06 Feb 2021 Why fail fast and learn fast? 97/562
- 28 Oct 2023 The GOLDEN Rules of Software Engineering 97/669
- 13 Oct 2021 What is Bug Convergence? Why is it important for User Acceptance Testing (UAT)? 95/856
- 12 Oct 2022 14 Common Reasons Software Projects Fail (And How To Avoid Them) 93/656
- 13 May 2022 IT Training and Development: The most effective options for upskilling IT staff 93/1319
- 08 Dec 2021 What Are The 4 Types of Maintenance Strategies? 93/1266
- 23 Jun 2024 Best Practices for Managing Project Escalations 93/296
- 12 Aug 2024 Understanding Google Analytics in Mumbai: A Beginner's Guide 92/186
- 01 Oct 2020 Fail fast, learn faster with Agile methodology 91/1160
- 11 Nov 2021 What is an IT Self-service Portal? Why is it Important to Your Business? 89/529
- 20 Jan 2021 Fail early, fail often, fail cheap, fail safe but always fail forward 88/876
- 08 Nov 2022 4 tips for meeting tough deadlines when outsourcing projects to software vendor 87/373
- 10 Apr 2021 RFP vs POC: Why the proof of concept is replacing the request for proposal 87/413
- 18 Aug 2022 What are the consequences of poor requirements with software development projects? 87/345
- 14 Mar 2024 Why should you opt for software localization from a professional agency? 87/226
- 03 Apr 2022 Microsoft Solutions Framework (MSF) 85/1409
- 31 Aug 2022 What are the best practices for software contract negotiations? 83/350
- 03 Jan 2023 Organizing your agile teams? Think about M.A.T (Mastery, Autonomy, Purpose) 82/475
- 05 Mar 2021 How do you minimize risks when you outsource software development? 81/413
- 02 Nov 2021 [Case Study] Streamlined Data Reporting using Tableau 80/382
- 02 Dec 2022 3 Levels of Quality in KANO Analysis Model 80/1245
- 02 Jan 2024 What is User Provisioning & Deprovisioning? 80/658
- 23 Sep 2021 INFOGRAPHIC: Top 9 Software Outsourcing Mistakes 79/502
- 11 Oct 2021 10 Myths About Low-End Project Management Software 78/412
- 12 Aug 2022 What is End-to-end project management? 78/564
- 01 Mar 2024 10 Project Management Myths 78/238
- 02 May 2022 What Is RAID in Project Management? (With Pros and Cons) 77/913
- 02 May 2022 What Is RAID in Project Management? (With Pros and Cons) 77/913
- 07 Oct 2025 Case Study: Using the “Messaging House” Framework to Build a Digital Transformation Roadmap 77/156
- 03 Dec 2025 IT Outsourcing Solutions Explained: What, How, Why, When 76/106
- 16 Feb 2021 Choose Outsourcing for Your Non Disclosure Agreement (NDA) 75/244
- 05 May 2021 TIGO Magic Scale - PoC tool for you to apply dichotomous thinking before submitting RFP 75/404
- 07 Jul 2021 The 5 Levels of IT Help Desk Support 73/547
- 06 Mar 2024 [SemRush] What Are LSI Keywords & Why They Don‘t Matter 72/267
- 05 Sep 2023 The Cold Start Problem: How to Start and Scale Network Effects 71/262
- 28 Dec 2021 8 types of pricing models in software development outsourcing 71/505
- 08 Oct 2022 KPI - The New Leadership 69/675
- 14 Oct 2021 Stream Story - Low land stream or fast moving stream? 66/689
- 14 Oct 2021 Advantages and Disadvantages of Time and Material Contract (T&M) 65/947
- 28 Jul 2022 POC, Prototypes, Pilots and MVP: What Are the Differences? 64/794
- 21 Oct 2025 Cloud-Native Development: Why It’s the Future of Enterprise IT 64/151
- 02 Dec 2022 Success Story: Satsuki - Sales Management Software, back office app for School Subscription Management 63/300
- 22 May 2022 What are common mistakes that new or inexperienced managers make? 63/343
- 16 Apr 2021 Insightful Business Technology Consulting at TIGO 62/511
- 20 Jan 2022 TIGO Self-Organization Practice: Change Management Workflow 62/529
- 10 Dec 2023 Pain points of User Acceptance Testing (UAT) 62/516
- 02 Nov 2022 Difference between Change Management and Project Management 61/292
- 17 Oct 2021 Does Fast Tracking increase project cost? 61/432
- 13 Feb 2021 Why is TIGOSOFT a software house for Enterprise Application Development? 61/441
- 07 Aug 2022 Things to Consider When Choosing a Technology Partner 61/343
- 07 Jul 2022 Managing Project Execution Terms 60/467
- 27 Jan 2020 Should a project manager push developers to work more hours due to mistakes of manager schedule setting? 60/499
- 09 May 2022 Build one to throw away vs Second-system effect: What are differences? 59/370
- 03 Sep 2022 The secret of software success: Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication 58/262
- 10 Apr 2024 The Parking Lot Method: Unlocking a Simple Secret to Supercharge Your Productivity 58/565
- 01 May 2024 Warren Buffett’s Golden Rule for Digital Transformation: Avoiding Tech Overload 57/263
- 12 Dec 2021 Zero Sum Games Agile vs. Waterfall Project Management Methods 57/467
- 14 Jun 2022 Example and Excel template of a RACI chart in Software Development 56/918
- 03 Nov 2022 Top questions and answers you must know before ask for software outsourcing 56/341
- 10 Jul 2025 Building AI-Driven Knowledge Graphs from Unstructured Data 56/217
- 01 Jan 2024 The pros and cons of the Centralized Enterprise Automation Operating model 56/275
- 01 Dec 2023 Laws of Project Management 55/369
- 04 Oct 2022 Which ERP implementation strategy is right for your business? 55/403
- 01 Feb 2024 How long does it take to develop software? 54/262
- 19 Apr 2021 7 Most Common Time-Wasters For Software Development 54/599
- 19 Oct 2021 Is gold plating good or bad in project management? 53/884
- 10 Nov 2022 Poor Code Indicators and How to Improve Your Code? 53/270
- 09 Feb 2023 The Challenge of Fixed-Bid Software Projects 53/297
- 03 Apr 2021 How digital asset management streamlines your content workflow? 52/380
- 18 Jul 2021 How To Ramp Up An Offshore Software Development Team Quickly 52/640
- 18 Oct 2021 Key Elements to Ramping Up a Large Team 50/1296
- 20 Jul 2022 Software Myths and Realities 50/983
- 05 Jan 2024 Easy ASANA tips & tricks for you and your team 50/247
- 07 Dec 2023 12 project management myths to avoid 50/242
- 12 Mar 2024 How do you create FOMO in software prospects? 50/218
- 18 Feb 2026 "Hit and Run" Project Management: Balancing Speed with Sustainability 50/69
- 02 Jun 2024 Reviving Ancient Wisdom: The Spiritual Side of Project Management 49/301
- 01 Mar 2023 Bug Prioritization - What are the 5 levels of priority? 49/275
- 24 Nov 2023 The project management paradox: Achieving MORE by doing LESS 49/279
- 26 Sep 2024 Successful Project Management Techniques You Need to Look Out For 47/442
- 02 Dec 2021 3 Ways to Avoid Scope Creep in IT Consulting 47/256
- 15 May 2022 20 Common Mistakes Made by New or Inexperienced Project Managers 47/329
- 07 Oct 2022 Digital Transformation: Become a Technology Powerhouse 47/292
- 01 Oct 2020 Handling tight project deadlines as a business analyst 47/374
- 31 Oct 2021 Tips to Fail Fast With Outsourcing 47/435
- 28 Oct 2022 Build Operate Transfer (B.O.T) Model in Software Outsourcing 46/448
- 06 Jun 2022 Change Management at the Project Level 46/351
- 13 Jan 2020 Quiz: Test your understanding project cost management 45/681
- 16 Jun 2022 Rapid Application Development (RAD): Pros and Cons 44/918
- 09 Mar 2022 Consultant Implementation Pricing 44/255
- 05 Jun 2023 Fractional, Part-Time (virtual) or Interim CTO: Who Will Cover Your Business Needs? 44/186
- 21 Jun 2021 6 Useful Tips To Streamline Business Processes and Workflows 43/572
- 17 Feb 2022 Prioritizing Software Requirements with Kano Analysis 42/346
- 06 Mar 2021 4 things you need to do before getting an accurate quote for your software development 42/733
- 01 May 2023 CTO Interview Questions 42/377
- 01 Aug 2022 Is planning "set it and forget it" or "set it and check it"? 41/328
- 20 Nov 2022 Software Requirements Are A Communication Problem 41/281
- 30 Nov 2023 Project Managers, Focus on Outcomes — Not Deliverables 41/201
- 26 Dec 2023 Improving Meeting Effectiveness Through the Six Thinking Hats 41/312
- 01 Mar 2023 How do you deal with disputes and conflicts that may arise during a software consulting project? 38/198
- 03 Nov 2022 Questions and answers about Kano Model 38/926
- 06 Nov 2019 How to Access Software Project Size? 32/289
- 17 Mar 2025 IT Consultants in Digital Transformation 32/119
- 21 Jun 2024 Dead Horses and the Escalation of Commitment 31/168
- 10 May 2022 Levels of Teamwork 31/225
In project management, the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of best case uncertainty during a project. At the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty. As more research and development is done, more information is learned about the project, and the uncertainty then tends to decrease, reaching 0% when all residual risk has been terminated or transferred. This usually happens by the end of the project i.e. by transferring the responsibilities to a separate maintenance group.
In software development, the Cone of Uncertainty is used to manage projects where the requirements and tasks are changing constantly, including business requirements and technologies used in product development.
“The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them” — Steve McConnell.
The term Cone of Uncertainty is used in software development where the technical and business environments change very rapidly. However, the concept, under different names, is a well-established basic principle of cost engineering. Most environments change so slowly that they can be considered static for the duration of a typical project, and traditional project management methods therefore focus on achieving a full understanding of the environment through careful analysis and planning. Well before any significant investments are made, the uncertainty is reduced to a level where the risk can be carried comfortably. In this kind of environment the uncertainty level decreases rapidly in the beginning and the cone shape is less obvious. The software business however is very volatile and there is an external pressure to decrease the uncertainty level over time. The project must actively and continuously work to reduce the uncertainty level.
The Cone of Uncertainty is narrowed both by research and by decisions that remove the sources of variability from the project. These decisions are about scope, what is included and not included in the project. If these decisions change later in the project then the cone will widen.
Original research for engineering and construction in the chemical industry demonstrated that actual final costs often exceeded the earliest "base" estimate by as much as 100% (or underran by as much as 50%). Research in the software industry on the Cone of Uncertainty stated that in the beginning of the project life cycle (i.e. before gathering of requirements) estimates have in general an uncertainty of factor 4 on both the high side and the low side. This means that the actual effort or scope can be 4 times or 1/4 of the first estimates. This uncertainty tends to decrease over the course of a project, although that decrease is not guaranteed.
Explore more on these topics
Guest Blogging: The Definitive Guide
Top Trending Topics
Share This
Link copied!
Recently Updated News